Mercaris Murmurings: Organic prices regain momentum

Organic feed-grade soybean prices are regaining bullish momentum in February, averaging $36.50 per bushel delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators. That’s up more than $3.50 per bushel from the start of the year. Organic soybean prices gains had leveled off at the end of 2021 as the industry assessed last year’s record-setting harvest of 10.4 million bushels. However, it appears the market anticipates supplies tightening over the remainder of 2021/22, as imports continue to slow, and prices move higher. 

Regarding imports, January did see organic soybean imports increase 7% year-over-year to nearly 14,000 MT, with the Black Sea region and Canada accounting for the bulk of imports over January. Imports from India remain reduced, and imports from Argentina slowed along seasonal lines. However, though January, organic soybean imports for the 2021/22 marketing year had reached 78,000 MT, down 14% y/y. 

Organic soybean meal maritime imports remained below year ago levels in January, reached only 13,000 MT, or their lowest monthly volume since April 2017. The drop in imports can be entirely attributed to India, and a dramatic cut in supplies from the country. Over January, U.S. organic soybean meal imports from India were below 1,000 MT, or down 97% y/y. 

With imports of both whole organic soybeans and organic soybean meal pulling lower, the supply outlook is likely to continue to tighten over the next few months. Without a large increase in imports from either the Black Sea region or Africa, it appears unlikely U.S. organic soybean prices will receive much relief before the third quarter of this year. 

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.