Mercaris Murmurings: Organic outlook tightens amid Ukraine conflict

The market outlook for organic soybeans continued to tighten over the first half of March, with prices averaging $39 per bushel delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators over the two-week period ending March 12. That’s up nearly $2.50 per bushel from the start of the prior month. With the February incursion of Russian forces into Ukraine, the outlook for not only organic soybeans but the broader organic oilseed market took another step toward tightening supplies. As reported previously by Mercaris, over 2021 Russia and Ukraine jointly accounted for 13% of the U.S. organic soybean meal imports and 35% of whole organic soybeans imports. Furthermore, Ukraine alone accounted for 17% of U.S. organic sunflower and canola imports.

In keeping with the tight supply outlook, organic soybean meal maritime imports remained well below year-ago levels over February, reaching only 13,000 MT, or down 59% y/y. However, February did bring some positive news for whole organic soybeans. Over February, U.S. whole organic soybean imports reached 36,000 MT, their highest level since July 2021. With February’s surge, 2021/22 marketing year-to-date organic soybean imports reached 115,000 MT, up 11% y/y.

Despite February’s bump, however, the import outlook for whole organic soybeans remains challenging. Mercaris had looked to the Black Sea region to supply the U.S. with organic soybeans, as well other oilseeds over the remainder of 2021/22, an outlook that now appears to be questionable. With the deteriorating situation in Ukraine, it now appears questionable if organic soybean imports will be able to finish out the 2021/22 marketing year head of 2020/21.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.