Mercaris Murmurings: U.S. organic soybean acreage expected to increase

Organic soybean prices are holding steady but elevated into April, as the market weighs the supply outlook for the rest of the year. While early indications from organic seed sales suggests an increase in U.S. organic soybean acreage as high as 20% this year, an expansion of this scale is likely to result in a less than 2 million bushel expansion in U.S. production. Putting this in perspective, U.S. organic soybean meal imports have fallen nearly 119,000 ST over the first seven months of the 2021/22 MY, or the equivalent of nearly 4 million bushels of organic soybeans.

Looking more closely at organic soy imports, March did bring another month of strong organic soybean imports, reaching nearly 730,000 bu, supported by notable imports from the Black Sea region and India. The imports from India are particularly striking, as March achieved the highest monthly volume from the country since March 2019. In contrast, organic soybean meal maritime imports fell below 10,000 ST over March, down to their lowest level since August 2017. Imports slumped, in part, as the flow of organic soybean meal from Russian and the Black Sea region were was halted in March.

As the market outlook remains tightened, prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators average $39.26 per bu over the two-week period ending April 9, 2022, up about $0.20 per bushel from the start of the prior month. While prices have stalled at the start April, the next two months are likely to be critical as farms lock in planting decisions, and organic livestock operations look to lock in feed supplies for the remainder of this marketing year.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.