Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean imports continue to climb

U.S. organic soybean imports were higher y/y for the seventh month in a row, reaching 23,000 MT over May. Organic soybean imports were supported in May by large volumes from Africa as well as another month of increased imports from India. Organic soybean meal maritime imports increased over May from the prior month, approaching year-ago levels. Volumes moved higher as imports from India reached their highest level since October 2021, and shipments from the Black Sea region remained strong. In total, U.S. maritime imports of organic soybean meal reached 29,000 MT over May, down 9% y/y.

With the end of the second quarter of 2022 approaching, prices for organic soybeans appear to be getting a break from the bullish pressure they have felt since the start of the year. Over the two-week period ending June 18, prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators averaged nearly $41.00 per bushel, mostly even with the midpoint of the prior month. The spot market for organic soybeans has remained very tight, although it appears that many purchasers have secured most of their needs for the rest of this marketing year. Bids for new crop delivery continue to run below spot bids as the fall supply outlook remains uncertain, and organic livestock feed purchasers look to protect against increased production costs.

Looking toward the third quarter, prices appear to have limited room for additional bullish support. Given the current discount for new crop bids relative to spot, it’s possible some bearish price pressure may begin to develop this fall. However, the outlook past the end of 2022 is far less certain. Although this year is expected to see another substantial increase in U.S. organic soybean production, the majority of U.S. supplies will remain dependent of foreign supplies, which have yet to stabilize after the past two years of significant and continuous disruption.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.