Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean prices dropping before harvest

U.S. organic soybean imports continued to build, reaching over 59,000 MT over July, up 40% y/y. Over July, organic soybean imports were supported by significant volumes from Argentina and Turkey. In total, organic soybean imports reached 266,000 MT through July 2021/22, up 15% y/y and only down 5% from 2019/20. Total Organic soybean meal maritime imports saw another strong month in July after a considerable recovery month in June, reaching 26,000 MT, mainly from Turkey. Total U.S. organic soybean meal imports are still down 35% y/y at 255,000 MT through July 2021/22.

With harvest quickly approaching, prices for organic soybeans have finally started to come back down after being around $38-$42 per bushel for most of the summer. Over August, prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators averaged $35.00 per bushel, the lowest average for a month since March 2022. However, as harvest nears, prices appear to be trending back up. Bids for both the spot market and new crop delivery have increased over the last two weeks, indicating that there may be some bullish pressure ahead of harvest.

As harvest approaches, much uncertainty still looms in the organic soybean market. While recent prices indicate some bullish pressure, it is still possible that prices soften at harvest time. Even with organic soybean yields in question, there is still expected to be a substantial increase in U.S. organic soybean production. On top of that, organic soybean imports have been growing, with soybeans continuing to stream into the U.S. from Argentina and Turkey. While the Turkey imports are in question of how long they can continue, there are reports that Argentina could continue to ship soybeans to the U.S. in large quantities. Only time will tell if the increased production and imports will be enough to meet the U.S. demand.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.