Mercaris Murmurings: Organic import volumes remain significant

In August, U.S. organic soybeans saw a second consecutive significant month, with imports reaching over 49,000 MT. That is a total of almost 100,000 MT over the last two months. Over August, organic soybean imports were supported by significant volumes from Argentina with 30,500 MT and 13,200 MT from Turkey. Through August 2021/22, organic soybean imports reached 305,000 MT, up 27% year-over-year and up 4% from 2019/20.

Total organic soybean meal maritime imports reached 22,900 MT over August – the lowest amount since April – but up 70% year-over-year. The most significant number of imports came from China with 8,500 MT and over 6,000 MT coming from Turkey and India combined. Total U.S. organic soybean meal imports are still down 32% year-over-year at 278,000 MT through August 2021/22.

As fall begins, organic soybean prices have continued to soften. Over September, prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators averaged $32.09/bu., the lowest average for a month of 2022 and down $2.68/bu. from August. Depending on how the harvest goes, we could see organic soybean prices begin to move bullish or bearish over the coming month.

While soybeans were getting some bullish pressure over August, we have continued to see the prices soften. With the continued steady imports of organic soybeans – even if we see a reduction in yields for soybeans from last year with an increase in total organic soybean acres – it is possible there will not be as much bullish pressure on organic soybeans as there once was. Although supply has continued to build as we arrive at harvest, there is still much uncertainty. There continue to be large imports of organic soybeans from Turkey, and it is difficult to say how long those can continue. If those imports come to a halt – even with a large number of organic soybean imports over the last few months –there will be a lot of weight on the U.S. production of organic soybeans to avoid bullish pressure reappearing in the organic soybean market.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.