Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean climb may be near an end

The organic soybean market has continued to be a roller coaster since 2020, and the long upward climb appears to be at an end. In September, U.S. organic soybean imports decreased significantly reaching only 8,400 MT following 100,000 MT over the previous two months. Though many of the September organic soybean imports still came from Argentina – approximately 4,400 MT in total – that is a decrease from the 30,500 MT reported during August. There were no organic soybean imports from Turkey following the 13,200 MT imported in August.

In total, organic soybean imports are off to a slower start for 2022/23 after reaching 305,000 MT in 2021/22. Total organic soybean meal maritime imports reached 26,700 MT over September, down 14% y/y and 8% from August. The most significant number of imports came from India with 22,000 MT while the rest came from Ethiopia, Togo and China. Total U.S. organic soybean meal imports are still down 32% y/y at 280,000 MT through September 2021/22.

As harvest continues, organic soybean prices have continued to soften. Over October, prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators averaged $32.08/bu., down from $35.60 in September. With the continued imports of soybeans and increased U.S. production, prices likely will not move higher this year, and it is possible prices will continue this downward trend.

Even though imports of U.S. organic soybeans slowed down over September, it is unlikely this downturn is enough to stop the bearish pressure soybeans are facing. With the total number of soybeans imported over the last year, along with increased U.S. production, the U.S. organic soybean supply is continuing to grow to a point which could leave large amounts of carryover into next year. As prices continue to come down, imports may slow down slightly. However, many imports likely will continue to come in. With the soybean supply continuing to grow, it is likely organic soybean prices drop below $30.00/bu. before the end of 2022.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.