Mercaris Murmurings: U.S. flooded with organic soybean imports

In October, U.S. organic soybean imports increased significantly, reaching 44,800 MT after only 8,400 MT in September. Over October, most organic soybean imports came from Argentina with 23,600 MT, up from 4,400 MT, in September. There also were 14,000 MT of organic soybean imports from Turkey after none in September. This rebound now puts the total U.S. organic soybean imports at 48,000 MT for 2022/23. Total organic soybean meal maritime imports reached 33,900 MT over October, up 623% y/y and 106% from September. The most significant number of imports came from Turkey, with 24,000 MT, with another 7,000 MT from India. The rest came from Ethiopia and Togo. A solid start to the marketing year after total U.S. organic soybean meal maritime imports reached 280,000 MT in 2021/22.

Throughout the last year, there has been an assumption that organic soybean imports would lessen following the trade restrictions in India and the war in Ukraine. However, with record-high prices, organic soybean imports have continued to be strong throughout 2022. With the strong imports and the vast increase in U.S. production, the supply has continued to increase despite these record-high prices.

As the end of 2022 approaches, soybean prices have begun to decline. Over November, prices have been averaging $32.30 and dipping as low as $27.40. Even though prices have continued to lower, organic soybean imports continue to flood into the country. The total organic soybean supply continues to grow with an increase in U.S. production of organic soybeans and continued strong imports. For now, these prices are still high enough that countries want to send the U.S. organic soybeans, but at a certain point, these prices will hit a level that the organic soybean imports will slow down. It is most likely that these prices will continue to drop into the coming year, and as prices drop, organic soybean imports should start to taper off.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.