Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean prices continue to dip

U.S. organic soybean imports in March reached 22,000 MT, a decline of 14% from the prior year. For the second straight month, Turkey was the largest source of organic soybeans to the U.S. with half of the total import volume coming from Turkey. Argentina shipped an unseasonably large volume of 6,000 MT in March, where normally they do not ship significant volumes until the latter half of the year. The remaining source of organic soybeans was Togo, with 3,000 MT.

Organic soybean prices continued the downward trend that has been seen throughout the year. So far in the month of April, the average price of feed-grade soybeans delivered in the U.S. Corn Belt was $24.40, which is down from $24.60 in March and $39 in April of last year. Trade activity has been unseasonably quiet, especially in new crop. Processors are comfortable working through current supplies, and are mostly unwilling to make new contracts unless prices are below the current market.

In the coming weeks, planting intentions for organic soybeans will become clearer as planting season picks up. Organic soybean seed sellers have indicated that seed sales are below what they were last year, which suggests that planting acreage will come in lower than 2022. The supply situation in Argentina remains dire, with droughts and a freeze having already wiped out at least half of the crop. The deal with Russia to ship grain out of Ukraine is set to end in mid-May, which would end the possibility of further Ukrainian imports if allowed to expire. Both sides of the market remain content to wait and see how the price evolves throughout the growing season.