IP Crop Network, November Report

This monthly feature from SSGA’s Agronomy Action Team highlights growing conditions for Identity Preserved crops from different regions around the country. Thanks to the states/regions that contributed this month. If you would like to contribute, please get in touch with David Kee or Katelyn Engquist. You should also follow David Kee on Twitter for some of the latest, most-interesting information on agronomy and research that affect IP and other farmers.

Illinois
Across Illinois harvest is winding down in both corn and soybeans. At the end of this week, around 90-95% of the crop will be harvested. In the end, the yields followed the rain. Where timely showers fell, yields were tremendous. Where the rain didn’t fall, yields were disappointing or even just plain poor. Some of the dry areas in Southern Ill. have seen a lot of acres of sub-100-bushel corn, 30-45 bushel full-season soybeans and 10-20 bushel double crop soybeans after wheat. Crop insurance will play a role in the year end finances for many growers across the state.

Tillage, tillage and tillage… that has been the activity for a lot of areas over the past few weeks. It isn’t often we get a dry fall that allows for endless time in the fields.

The winter wheat crop is off to a very good start with very good emergence and good growth heading into the winter.

2024 planning is now well underway with a lot of fall fertilizer being applied and ground worked according to the plan next spring. Fertilizer prices have significantly softened year-over-year, but with grain prices slipping $2 on corn and $2-3 on soybeans, fertilizer had to come down. Fertilizer pricing might be the best example of “what the market will bear” of anything sold, in any industry. Take potash for example. It is being mined out of the same hole in the ground it has for the past 50 years, and it is still 0-0-60 with zero improvements in the product itself. Realizing operating and transportation costs do vary some, we have seen prices change 250% just in the last 10 years. Last year it was $900 per ton, now its $550 per ton…the topic could be a master’s thesis for an economics grad student.

– Scott A. Eversgerd, Field Agronomist – Southern Illinois, Pioneer Hi-Bred Int’l

Michigan
It is taking most of October and November to get the 2023 Michigan soybean crop harvested. As of Nov. 13, we are 83% harvested which is 11% behind last year’s pace but similar to our 5-year progress. The second and third week of November is allowing significant harvest progress.

State average yield is predicted to be 47 bushels per acre in the most recent estimate by USDA. This would be consistent with last year’s yield. While an average yield is appreciated compared to the expectations in the early season this year, this crop yield has disappointed some growers as the crop appeared better than that because of good weather through most reproductive growth stages. This crop and the business of agriculture is great but has a way of keeping us humble.

– Mark Seamon, Research Director, Michigan Soybean Committee

Minnesota
Minnesota is dry, but predicted rain is hoped to ease drought concerns. If fall rains do not restore soil moisture status, planting 2024 will prove to be interesting. According to the drought monitor, about 44% of the state is rated moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3). The Nov. 6 USDA Minnesota Crop Progress report topsoil moisture supplies were rated 30% short to very short, 65% adequate and 5% surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 49% short to very short, 48% adequate and 3% surplus.

Crop harvest is all but complete in Minnesota. Corn silage, small grains, edible beans and soybeans have been largely harvested. Sunflower and sugarbeet harvests are nearing completion. Corn grain harvest is proceeding rapidly with 86% harvested by Nov. 6. Grain moisture has been sufficiently low that grain drying is limited in scope. Early on, soybean harvest was slowed due to excessive green stems and morning dews reducing harvest speeds.  Some farmers are concerned about future crop volunteer corn and soybean issues in 2024 due to excessive harvest escapes. Farmer yield reports vary from “drought impacted” to “well above average.”

Field work, soil sampling, tillage, manure and fertilizer applications, etc., continues. Soil temperatures have been excessively high, limiting fall N fertilizer applications. With the recent drop in soil temps (<50^oF), nitrogen, as well as P and K, fertilizers are going down.  Given the low river levels around Memphis, there is a great concern expressed as to input availability in the spring.

– David Kee, Director of Research, Minnesota Soybean Research and Promotion Council

Missouri
With a couple of cold snaps hitting Missouri over the past couple of weeks, we are beginning to see our landscape change. Last week, we had a warming trend and allowed a lot of field work to continue. We have not had much precipitation near the end of October and into November. For the first week of November, the USDA predicted we had 6.6/7 good days for field work, and Missouri is not registering any surplus of topsoil moisture.

The Missouri corn crop is 94% harvested and the soybean crop is 91% harvested. The cotton crop is about 93% picked. The 2023/24 winter wheat crop is 85% planted with 65% emerged. The winter wheat crop is looking good for the early season with the timely rains a couple weeks back.

We have heard that throughout the state we saw good soybean yields, which was not to be expected with the dry conditions over the summer. Keeping in mind, we did have some regions of the state that had decreased yields due to the extreme, dry conditions.

– Bryan Stobaugh, Director of Licensing and Commercialization, Missouri Soybeans

North Dakota

We have less than favorable conditions during harvest, especially for later-season crops such as corn and sunflower. Farmers faced a time crunch for post-harvest activities such as tillage and fertilizer application.

The soybean harvest was completed during the 1st week of November. According to the NASS Report on Nov. 13, corn harvested was 76%, behind 95% last year, but near 72% for the five-year average; sunflowers harvested was 59%, well behind 90% last year and behind the 72% average.

According to the NASS report for the week ending Nov. 12, topsoil moisture supplies rated 3% very short, 14% short, 77% adequate, and 6% surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 5% very short, 26% short, 67% adequate, and 2% surplus.

In 2023, North Dakota soybean farmers harvested 6.15 million acres of soybeans (NASS Report, Oct. 2023). The average yield per acre was estimated at 33 bushels per acre, down 2 bushels from 2022. Production is forecasted at 203 million bushels, up 2% from last year (NASS Report, Oct. 2023). The area for harvest at 6.15 million acres, is up 8% from 2022.

Overall, the soybean harvest was completed, and yields were 33 bushels per acre which is slightly lower than the historical average of 35 bushels per acre. Farmers continue to wrap up corn and sugar beet harvest, and this week’s weather is encouraging to make great progress.

– Miki Miheguli, Research Programs Coordinator, North Dakota Soybean Council

Wisconsin

In the week ending Nov. 5, the Wisconsin corn crop reached 98% maturity, as reported by the USDA-NASS Crop Progress report. Despite the advanced maturity, the corn for grain harvest was 50% complete, 2% behind last year and 5% behind the five-year average. Corn condition was reported to be 54% in the good to excellent.

According to the latest USDA Crop Production report released on Nov. 9, the forecast for corn production stands at 530 million bushels, based on conditions as of Nov. 1. Although corn yields are expected to average 171 bushels per acre, reflecting a promising 6 bushels per acre increase from the Oct. 1 forecast, this figure is down by 9 bushels per acre compared to last year. The estimated corn planted acreage is 4 million acres, with an anticipated 3.1 million acres to be harvested for grain.

Shifting to soybeans, the harvest was reported to be 83% complete as of Nov. 5, trailing behind last year by 10% and 1% below the average. The forecast for soybean production is 101 million bushels, with a yield of 49 bushels per acre. Although this yield represents an increase of bushels from the October forecast, it is down by 5 bushels from 2022. The estimated soybean planted acreage is 2.1 million acres, with 2.07 million acres slated for harvest.

As for winter wheat, planting progress has reached completion, with 90% of the crop having already emerged. Additionally, 50% of the winter wheat is reported to be in good to excellent condition, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous week.

— Shawn Conley, State Extension Soybean and Small Grain Specialist, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Note: To see state Crop Progress reports from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS): click here.