Argus Murmurings: Strike risks threaten organic soy imports

Organic soybean imports in May 2024 were estimated at 5,500t (metric tons), down 87% from the prior year and 70% from the prior month. Canada supplied an estimated 3,000t, followed by Paraguay with 1,000t. Togo was the primary source of African soybeans with 800t. The balance is covered by 200t from Argentina and 300t from Turkey.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for June 21, 2024, was $19.50, which is up $0.05 from the prior month but down $3.86 from the prior year. Trading activity is expected to increase in July once buyers have a better sense of early crop conditions.

Importers are keeping an eye on the threat of a strike by longshoremen along the East Coast and Gulf Coast. Talks between the union and ports recently stalled, which could lead to the first port strike on the East Coast in decades. The peak season for the import of Argentine organic soybeans starts in the summer, so a long-lasting strike could make bringing in the recent Argentine organic soybean harvest difficult. Market participants are also keeping an eye on the chance of a rail strike affecting the two largest rail companies in Canada, Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City. The union is expected to hold a second strike vote in late June, which could lead to a strike in mid-July if successful. While some of the volume would be moved via trucks, freight rates are expected to rise. A backup of imports being unloaded onto trains could impact exports of Canadian organic soybean meal to the U.S., as well as prevent imported African organic soybeans from making their way into Canada to be crushed.