Argus Murmurings: Market awaits certainty on tariffs

Organic soybean imports in December 2024 are estimated at 20,000 MT, more than twice that of the same month in the prior year. Argentina supplied 9,000t and Uruguay provided an additional 6,500t. Canada, Turkey and Ethiopia all provided smaller volumes. 

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for the week ended Jan. 24, 2025, was $20.08/bushel, which is up $0.60 from a month prior and down $0.27 from a year prior.  

Most end-users can wait until market uncertainty is resolved before resuming buying. Most end-users are covered through the first quarter of the year and can wait until later in 2025 until they need to start buying for the second quarter, according to market contacts. 

The primary source of uncertainty is proposed tariffs from the Trump administration. Now that Trump has taken office, market participants expect tariffs to be implemented on Mexico, Canada and China as soon as Feb. 1. Canada supplied 18pc of U.S. organic soybean meal imports during the 2023-24 marketing year according to Argus estimates.  

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.