Argus Murmurings: Tariff risk threatens Canadian supplies

Organic soybean imports in February 2025 were estimated at 27,100 MT, up 159% from the month in the prior year. The Black Sea supplied most of the imports during February, with Turkey supplying 20,000 MT and Ukraine supplying 3,800 MT. The remaining 3,300 MT came from Canada.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for the week March 21, 2025, was $20.14/bushel, which is up $0.12 from a month prior and up $0.32 from a year prior.

If U.S. tariffs on products covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement resume in April, Canadian organic soy products will be unable to compete with supplies from domestic producers and other exporters. The increased cost of Canadian soy would increase reliance on organic soy from other regions, such as the Black Sea and Africa, to cover the needs of American end-users.

Canada provided 18% of U.S. organic soybean meal and 13% of organic soybean imports over the 2023-24 marketing year, according to Argus estimates and U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

Organic soy prices could increase in the short term, as supply chains adjust to avoid the 25% tariff placed on imports from Canada. The loss of U.S. demand for Canadian organic soymeal could also push some organic soybean imports supply from Canada to the U.S. to be used by U.S. crushers, market contacts said.

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.