Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean markets remain unsettled

U.S. organic soybean markets remained unsettled over June, following an unsettled outlook for production, imports and prices. Across the U.S. Corn Belt, the outlook for organic soybeans has generally improved as much-needed precipitation helped ease drought conditions across Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin. The exception to this trend appears to be Minnesota, with the U.S. Drought Monitor reporting 100% of the state experiencing drought conditions the week of July 20 and 4% of the state experiencing extreme- to exceptional-drought conditions. Overall, Mercaris estimates that 61% of organic soybean acres across the Corn Belt were rated in good to excellent condition as of July 18, down slightly from 69% last year.

While the U.S. crop outlook has improved slightly, the pace of import has also picked up speed. In June, U.S. organic soybean imports saw their largest month since the start of the MY, pushing above levels of a year ago by nearly 20%. The month saw imports from Argentina reach their highest level since June 2020, while imports from the Black Sea region reached their highest levels since September 2020.

U.S. organic soybean meal maritime imports also remained higher year over year for the 10th month in a row, up 7% year over year. That said, June did see the first substantial decline in organic soybean meal from India, which declined to its lowest level since October 2018, down 26% y/y. Ultimately, organic soybean meal imports for the month were supported by shipments from Turkey, with the United States importing nearly 12,000 MT from the country over the month.

Despite indications that U.S. organic soybean supplies might improve over the remainder of the marketing year, prices continue to reflect a tightening U.S. supply situation, with organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. elevators averaging $30.41/bu during June, up $3.37/bu from May and gaining $11/bu over year-ago prices.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.