Argus Murmurings: Argentine crop could see yield loss

Organic soybean imports in January 2025 were estimated at 23,200 MT, up 69pc from the same month in the prior year. Turkey was the largest supplier with 13,700 MT, followed by Argentina with 6,000 MT. Uruguay and Canda both supplied smaller volumes.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for the week ended January 24, 2025, was $20.08/bushel, which is up $0.60 from a month prior and down $0.27 from a year prior.

Argentina is a major source of organic soybeans to the U.S. They accounted for 75pc of U.S. organic soybean imports through December of the 2024-25 marketing year. However, yield expectations for the current Argentinean organic soybean crop have fallen due to high temperatures and low precipitation in major growing regions. Argentina’s soybean crop harvest is expected to start in late May.

Argentinean exporters are delaying new crop contracting because of possible future tariffs, according to market contacts. The uncertainty regarding tariffs could prevent the shipment of new crop organic soybeans to the U.S. if not resolved by summer and reduce U.S. supplies for the second half of 2025.

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.