Organic soybean imports in June 2024 are estimated at 2,400 metric tons (t), down 92% from the prior year and 7% from the prior month. Ukraine was the largest source with 1,500 MT, followed by Paraguay with 500 MT and Turkey with 400 MT.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for July 19, 2024, was $20.12, which is up $0.62 from the prior month but down $2.63 from the prior year. Trading activity has been picking up now that the organic soybean crop has been planted.

Availability of African organic soymeal has been tightening, according to market contacts. North America-based importers have reported greater difficulty finding volumes for exports to the U.S., with many African exporters unwilling to offer detailed quotes for organic soybean meal past July. It is unclear if the tightness in the African market is going to continue long-term. Organic soybean stocks in Africa have been drawn down by persistent strong exports to the U.S. Availability is likely to increase when North Africa harvests in the fall, but in the short term the tighter stocks could be a challenge for some end users that have relied on spot purchases to cover their needs.

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter. 

Organic soybean imports in April 2024 are estimated at 13,000t (metric tons), up 148% from the prior year but down 55% from the prior month. Turkey was the largest source with 8,000t, followed by Canada with an estimated 2,000t. Ukraine supplied 2,000t, while Paraguay and Argentina both sent volumes under 1,000t.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for May 24, 2024, was $19.45, a decrease of $0.01 from the prior month and $4.93 from the prior year. The market has been quiet as buyers wait to get a better idea of how organic soybean planting goes.

Even as U.S. organic soybean pricing has fallen, Africa has continued to ship significant volumes of organic soybean meal into the U.S. Market contacts have reported that some loads are brought into the U.S. without a buyer, at which point the importer regularly discounts the price until it is sold. As a result of the availability of African organic soybean meal, traders have reported difficulty selling domestic soybean meal into the East Coast. The steady shipment of 10,000-15,000t per month of African soybean meal into the U.S. has applied further bearish pressure to an already amply supplied market.

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter. 

Organic soybean imports in Nov. 2023 increased significantly to 28,000 MT, an increase of 56% y/y and 2200% m/m. Argentina was the largest source with 16,000 MT, followed by Turkey with 8,000 MT. Uruguay and Ukraine both sent 1,000 MT. This was the first month that Ukraine has exported organic soybeans to the United States since Oct. 2022.

Domestic organic soybean prices recovered in November. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $22.00 during November, which is down $0.15 from the prior month and down $7.49 from a year prior. Organic soybean trading has been quieter than usual for this time of year but has picked up from recent months.

The recent election in Argentina, a major source of organic soybeans, has raised questions about the potential dollarizing of the Argentine economy proposed by the new president would affect exports. In recent years, the Argentine economy has been affected by significant inflation, which has made farmers hesitant to export their grain. Grain stored on farm will be paid for with U.S. dollars when exported to the U.S., so while held on farm the value is not affected by the persistent inflation. When farmers do sell the grain and convert the revenue into Argentine pesos, it then becomes vulnerable to inflation and can lose value quickly. Farmers are then incentivized to hold onto their grain for longer. If the Argentine economy was converted to U.S. dollars, then farmers would have less of an advantage to carrying grain rather than selling it for export. This could help to front end Argentine exports more heavily towards harvest. However, a recent increase of 3% points for export duties will hamper some agricultural exports.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter

Organic soybean imports were up in September to an estimated 32,000 MT, an increase of 325% y/y and 144% m/m. This large volume was driven by 19,000 MT coming out of Ghana, which is the second largest monthly volume ever seen from the country. Argentina was the second largest source of organic soybeans in September with 11,000 MT. Paraguay, India, and Nigeria each also exported less than 1,000 MT each. Maritime organic soybean meal imports declined in September to 20,000 MT, down 27% y/y and 37% m/m, with most of the imports coming out of Africa. Togo was the largest African exporter with 5,000 MT, followed by Benin with 3,000 MT, Ethiopia with 3,000 MT, and Nigeria with 2,000 MT. Ghana and Mozambique each also exported less than 1,000 MT. The largest organic soybean meal outside of Africa in September was India with 4,000 MT. The remaining 1,000 MT were sourced from Brazil.

Domestic organic soybean prices recovered in September. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $22.00 during July, which is up $1.24 from the prior month and down $12.98 from a year prior. Market activity has been picking up as the organic soybean harvest begins.

Throughout the 2022/23 marketing year, which concluded in August, 9.3 million bushels of organic whole soybeans were imported into the United States. This is a decline of 17% from the prior year but above 2020/21 levels. Canada was one of the major exporters to see a major drop in exports, with a 48% decline from the prior marketing year to 637,000 bushels. Argentina and Turkey also saw large drops, with year-over-year decreases in volume of 24% and 19% respectively. India almost fully vanished as an exporter of organic soybeans to the United States, with a drop from over 400,000 bushels in 2021/22 to under 9,000 in 2022/23. These large drops were partially offset by the significant expansion of African exports. The largest African exporters of organic soybeans to the United States were Togo with a 171% increase to 1.6 million bushels and Ghana with a 108% increase to 900,000 bushels.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter

After a strong June, U.S. organic soybean imports were quiet in July. An estimated 1,400 MT of organic soybeans came in during July, all of which were sourced from Canada. This is a decline of 97% from the prior year. Organic soybean meal imports were busier, with 27,000 MT arriving during July. This is a 5% increase from the prior year and a 37% increase over the prior month. Turkey was the majority supplier with 16,000 MT. African nations were the next largest source, with 7,000 MT from Ethiopia, 2,000 MT from Togo and another 1,000 MT collected from other African countries. The remaining 1,000 MT were sourced from India.

Domestic organic soybean prices fell just slightly during July. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $21.00 during July, which is down $0.52 from the prior month and $15.30 from July 2022. Soybean markets have not seen significant activity as buyers await clearer pictures of what harvest will look like and what demand will be during the coming marketing year.

Russia’s announcement that it’s pulling out of the deal to allow the safe export of grains out of Ukraine has raised concerns about how the loss of Ukrainian supplies could impact U.S. organic markets. Ukraine has historically been a strong source of organic soybean imports but has fallen off due to the impacts of the war. Ukraine has sent just 9,000 MT of organic soybeans during the 2022/23 marketing year, compared to an average of 49,000 MT in the preceding five marketing years, with the last imports into the United States coming in February. There is also still time for a new deal to be agreed on before harvest reaches full swing and significant volumes would be expected to be exported out of Ukraine. One major source of risk is further escalation, which could lead to insurance brokers refusing to cover ships leaving the region and would make any further export nearly impossible.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter