U.S. organic soybean imports in February saw a surge back up to 33,000 metric tons (MT) after less than 2,000 MT came in just a month prior. This is the largest month of imports since August 2022. Despite the strong recovery from the prior month, February imports were still down 10% y/y. Turkey was the main source of organic whole soybeans in February, with over 31,000 MT. Cumulative imports through February for the current marketing year have reached 135,000 MT, which is 17% above the prior marketing year.

Organic soybean prices during the first quarter of 2023 have continued to come off the highs registered last year. During the biweekly period ending March 11, 2023, the price of organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $22.50, down from over $25.00 a month prior and $37.00 the year before. Soybean markets have overall been quiet with most buyers already having ample enough stocks. New crop contracting has been especially quiet, with most parties willing to wait to see how the price evolves over the coming months. The few bids that have been made for new crop soybeans are running below current levels.

Significant uncertainty remains unresolved in the organic soybean market, which provides the possibility for volatility in the coming months. Continued droughts in the major producing regions of Argentina have already led to notable crop losses while ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea could affect supply coming out of the region. It will be crucial to see in the coming months how U.S. acreage changes, as the declining price could steer more acres back to organic corn. Right now, both sides of the market will continue waiting on the sidelines until some of the above open issues are resolved.

The organic soybean market has continued to be a roller coaster since 2020, and the long upward climb appears to be at an end. In September, U.S. organic soybean imports decreased significantly reaching only 8,400 MT following 100,000 MT over the previous two months. Though many of the September organic soybean imports still came from Argentina – approximately 4,400 MT in total – that is a decrease from the 30,500 MT reported during August. There were no organic soybean imports from Turkey following the 13,200 MT imported in August.

In total, organic soybean imports are off to a slower start for 2022/23 after reaching 305,000 MT in 2021/22. Total organic soybean meal maritime imports reached 26,700 MT over September, down 14% y/y and 8% from August. The most significant number of imports came from India with 22,000 MT while the rest came from Ethiopia, Togo and China. Total U.S. organic soybean meal imports are still down 32% y/y at 280,000 MT through September 2021/22.

As harvest continues, organic soybean prices have continued to soften. Over October, prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators averaged $32.08/bu., down from $35.60 in September. With the continued imports of soybeans and increased U.S. production, prices likely will not move higher this year, and it is possible prices will continue this downward trend.

Even though imports of U.S. organic soybeans slowed down over September, it is unlikely this downturn is enough to stop the bearish pressure soybeans are facing. With the total number of soybeans imported over the last year, along with increased U.S. production, the U.S. organic soybean supply is continuing to grow to a point which could leave large amounts of carryover into next year. As prices continue to come down, imports may slow down slightly. However, many imports likely will continue to come in. With the soybean supply continuing to grow, it is likely organic soybean prices drop below $30.00/bu. before the end of 2022.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.

U.S. organic soybean imports continued to build, reaching over 59,000 MT over July, up 40% y/y. Over July, organic soybean imports were supported by significant volumes from Argentina and Turkey. In total, organic soybean imports reached 266,000 MT through July 2021/22, up 15% y/y and only down 5% from 2019/20. Total Organic soybean meal maritime imports saw another strong month in July after a considerable recovery month in June, reaching 26,000 MT, mainly from Turkey. Total U.S. organic soybean meal imports are still down 35% y/y at 255,000 MT through July 2021/22.

With harvest quickly approaching, prices for organic soybeans have finally started to come back down after being around $38-$42 per bushel for most of the summer. Over August, prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators averaged $35.00 per bushel, the lowest average for a month since March 2022. However, as harvest nears, prices appear to be trending back up. Bids for both the spot market and new crop delivery have increased over the last two weeks, indicating that there may be some bullish pressure ahead of harvest.

As harvest approaches, much uncertainty still looms in the organic soybean market. While recent prices indicate some bullish pressure, it is still possible that prices soften at harvest time. Even with organic soybean yields in question, there is still expected to be a substantial increase in U.S. organic soybean production. On top of that, organic soybean imports have been growing, with soybeans continuing to stream into the U.S. from Argentina and Turkey. While the Turkey imports are in question of how long they can continue, there are reports that Argentina could continue to ship soybeans to the U.S. in large quantities. Only time will tell if the increased production and imports will be enough to meet the U.S. demand.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.

U.S. organic soybean imports continued to build over April, exceeding 36,000 MT, or the largest import volume since July of 2021. Organic soybean imports were supported over April by another month of elevated imports from India—reaching 6,000 MT—as well as the third-consecutive month of elevated imports from the Black Sea region—reaching 25,000 MT. In contrast to organic soybeans, imports of organic soybean meal remained reduced over April at less than 12,000 MT, or their lowest level for the month since 2018. In somewhat of a departure from recent months, April’s organic soybean meal imports were largely sourced from India, with import from the country exceeding 10,000 MT for the first time in seven months. However, imports from India were lower over April compared to historical values, with imports over the month down 47% from the same month in 2021.

Although import volumes showed a slight improvement over April, prices have resume modest upward pressure. Over the two-week period ending May 14, 2022 prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators averaged $40.37 per bushel, up more than $1.00 per bushel from the start of the prior month. As of May 2022, the spot market for organic soybeans has become very tight in the U.S. This situation is due in large part to constricted U.S. supply. However, current price levels appear to be creating their own constraints on the market. In conversations organic market stakeholders, it has been anecdotally confirmed that throughout the supply chain many operations have adopted a hand-to-mouth supply management strategy as a form of protection against market price volatility. With much of the industry focused on locking in short-term needs, and at reduced volumes, overall contracting activity within the market has slowed over the second quarter of the year, resulting in reduced supply liquidity.

The reduction in liquidity appears to be extended into new-crop contracting as well, and for much of the same reason. Over May, contracts for new-crop delivered organic soybeans are being bid, and executed at a discount to spot markets as purchasers seek protection from potentially bearish market pressure this fall when the U.S is likely to experience a record organic soybean harvest, and seasonally escalating imports from Argentina. However, this discount appears to be limiting producer interest in securing new crop contracts given elevated spot market prices, as well as bullish price risk stemming from the on-going threat of Indian and Black Sea trade disruptions.

In total, as planting proceeds this spring, all sides appear to be sizing up future supply risks. While many factors suggest U.S. harvested acres will grow substantially this fall, imports will ultimately remain the deciding factor for U.S. supplies over the next year. Unfortunately for all though, imports will also remain the most uncertain.

The market outlook for organic soybeans continued to tighten over the first half of March, with prices averaging $39 per bushel delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators over the two-week period ending March 12. That’s up nearly $2.50 per bushel from the start of the prior month. With the February incursion of Russian forces into Ukraine, the outlook for not only organic soybeans but the broader organic oilseed market took another step toward tightening supplies. As reported previously by Mercaris, over 2021 Russia and Ukraine jointly accounted for 13% of the U.S. organic soybean meal imports and 35% of whole organic soybeans imports. Furthermore, Ukraine alone accounted for 17% of U.S. organic sunflower and canola imports.

In keeping with the tight supply outlook, organic soybean meal maritime imports remained well below year-ago levels over February, reaching only 13,000 MT, or down 59% y/y. However, February did bring some positive news for whole organic soybeans. Over February, U.S. whole organic soybean imports reached 36,000 MT, their highest level since July 2021. With February’s surge, 2021/22 marketing year-to-date organic soybean imports reached 115,000 MT, up 11% y/y.

Despite February’s bump, however, the import outlook for whole organic soybeans remains challenging. Mercaris had looked to the Black Sea region to supply the U.S. with organic soybeans, as well other oilseeds over the remainder of 2021/22, an outlook that now appears to be questionable. With the deteriorating situation in Ukraine, it now appears questionable if organic soybean imports will be able to finish out the 2021/22 marketing year head of 2020/21.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.