Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean markets remain unsettled

U.S. organic soybean markets remained unsettled over June, following an unsettled outlook for production, imports and prices. Across the U.S. Corn Belt, the outlook for organic soybeans has generally improved as much-needed precipitation helped ease drought conditions across Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin. The exception to this trend appears to be Minnesota, with the U.S. Drought Monitor reporting 100% of the state experiencing drought conditions the week of July 20 and 4% of the state experiencing extreme- to exceptional-drought conditions. Overall, Mercaris estimates that 61% of organic soybean acres across the Corn Belt were rated in good to excellent condition as of July 18, down slightly from 69% last year.

While the U.S. crop outlook has improved slightly, the pace of import has also picked up speed. In June, U.S. organic soybean imports saw their largest month since the start of the MY, pushing above levels of a year ago by nearly 20%. The month saw imports from Argentina reach their highest level since June 2020, while imports from the Black Sea region reached their highest levels since September 2020.

U.S. organic soybean meal maritime imports also remained higher year over year for the 10th month in a row, up 7% year over year. That said, June did see the first substantial decline in organic soybean meal from India, which declined to its lowest level since October 2018, down 26% y/y. Ultimately, organic soybean meal imports for the month were supported by shipments from Turkey, with the United States importing nearly 12,000 MT from the country over the month.

Despite indications that U.S. organic soybean supplies might improve over the remainder of the marketing year, prices continue to reflect a tightening U.S. supply situation, with organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. elevators averaging $30.41/bu during June, up $3.37/bu from May and gaining $11/bu over year-ago prices.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.

Senators voice concerns about shipping crisis

In show of bipartisan support for U.S. agriculture, 24 U.S. senators on Tuesday pushed for a swift resolution to the container shipping crisis, signing on to a letter to the Federal Maritime Commission, expressing support for the FMC’s investigation into reports of unreasonable practices by ocean carriers that are posing challenges for ag exporters.

“The need is urgent,” the letter said.

Led by Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) – both of whom are members of the Senate agriculture and commerce committees – the letter urges the FMC to take appropriate action under the Shipping Act to halt any potential violations of the Act by the carriers.

“If the reports are true, such practices would be unreasonable and would hurt millions of producers across the nation by preventing them from competing in overseas markets,” the senators wrote.

With ports experiencing unprecedented congestion, U.S. agricultural exporters’ access to international markets is being jeopardized by the dysfunction and rising costs of ocean transportation services, which includes unreasonable and unjust practices such as the rejection of U.S. agricultural cargo by ocean carriers who are shipping empty containers back overseas to keep up with the high demand for U.S.-bound imported goods.

In October, SSGA was one of the first national agricultural associations to shine a light on the disruption of the food supply chain and other critical problems facing containerized ag exports after members began to be informed that some ocean carriers were suspending containerized and other overseas ag shipments. 

Read the senators’ letter here.

Earlier this month, SSGA representatives had the opportunity to give testimony to the FMC, along with other national ag organizations, and last week, signed on to a letter to President Biden, urging intervention from his administration.

Virtual GTE comes to a close – sort of

By Shane Frederick, SSGA Communications Manager

The 2020 U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange & Specialty Grains Conference wrapped up on Thursday after four days of bringing together U.S. growers, processors and exporters with international buyers on a virtual platform.

In all, more than 1,500 attendees from 61 countries were registered for the GTE, which was co-hosted by the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) and the Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance (SSGA). Going into the final evening sessions, more than 1,000 unique participants were counted. However, more were expected Thursday night as well as over the next month, as the GTE platform remains open to registrants with its features available on-demand for the next 30 days.

“We promised that we’d deliver the next best thing to being together in one geographical location by creating a unique online space for us all to gather virtually,” SSGA Executive Director Eric Wenberg said in his closing comments. “I believe we did that, and I hope you thought so, too.”

Wenberg and SSGA Chair Curt Petrich participated in a media panel, along with USSEC CEO Jim Sutter and USSEC Chair Monte Peterson, on U.S. Soy resiliency in which they discussed the virtual GTE, as well as the state of the industry during COVID-19, which has actually seen rising global demand for U.S. Soy.

“In the food sector, when we talk about soy, that’s a core ingredient in daily diets,” Petrich said, citing increased interest in natto beans from Japanese customers as an example. “What we have seen is an increase in demand … and an increase in interest in the 2020 crop. There’s been a good, solid, strong demand within the current situation.”

Paralympic dreams

The day began with an inspirational session, as Kevan Hueftle, a Nebraska rancher and farmer, told his story of overcoming adversity to compete as a sprinter on the international stage. In 2019, Hueftle, a below-the-knee amputee, won gold and silver medals at the Para-Pan Am Games in Peru and also competed in the Para-Athletics World Championships in Dubai.

Hueftle, who lost his foot in a 2005 hunting accident and, later, began competitive running while recovering from alcoholism, was set to compete in the U.S. Paralympic Trials this year, but the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics were postponed to 2021 due to COVID-19.

“I just like to compete,” Hueftle, 35, said. “If you line me up with somebody on the track and we’re even close to each other, I’ll beat you to the finish line. That’s how I view life, anyway. I might not be the fastest or the biggest or anything like that, but I’m not going to be outworked. That’s not going to happen.”

Hueftle will go for gold next year. If he indeed makes it to Tokyo, he will be competing around the same time as next year’s GTE!

Food soya outlook

The third of SSGA’s three breakout sessions took place on Thursday with a food soya exporter outlook. Wenberg moderated a panel that included representatives from four soy-producing regions of the United States. The group included Travis Meyer of Brushvale Seed (Minnesota, North Dakota), Adam Buckentine of The Redwood Group (Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri), Steve Herr of Star of the West (Michigan, Ohio, Indiana) and Tom Taliaferro of Montague Farms (Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina).

The group reported on crop conditions in their respective areas and also discussed the current state of transportation and shipping logistics.

“The quality of the crop looks very, very good,” said Herr, who also noted that Star of the West is celebrating its 150th year of business. “Overall, crops throughout the Midwest look very, very good. Compared to 2019, it’s in very good shape. Growers are looking forward to seeing how the crop continues to mature as we get to harvest time.”

All noted growing interest and opportunities for identity-preserved (IP) soybeans going forward.

“Planning and communication will be the key to success,” said Buckentine, who is a member of SSGA’s Board of Directors.

Wrapping up

Thursday’s other sessions included a USSEC breakout on U.S. Soy oil and general sessions featuring U.S. Trade Representative Chief Agricultural Negotiator Gregg Doud, who shared his perspective on the current state of U.S. trade policies, including the Phase One agreement with China, and ConsiliAgra’s Emily French, who gave a market outlook and shared strategies to position for the 2021 marketing year.

Go to the GTE website to learn more and to see the full agenda. Use the hashtag #USSOYexchange on social media to find out more information.

Plant-based protein foods see demand explosion, huge gains on Wall Street; but future might not be all smooth sailing

By Bruce Abbe

There is an explosion in consumer demand underway for plant-based protein foods. As Americans fire up their grills this Fourth of July, two leading meat alternative companies have developed burgers that taste much like popular animal meat burgers.

Something extraordinary is happening at Impossible Foods, maker of the “Impossible Burger” – they’re running low on supply for its’ high-end restaurant customers, and short of employees who make, pack and ship their products to more than 400 distributors.

Now that growth has caught the eye of Wall Street investors. Impossible Foods leading alternative burger competitor Beyond Meats, a pea protein-based burger manufacturer, has seen its stock more than double since it hit the stock exchange in May. Impossible Foods remains privately held, but that could change. Euromonitor predicts the meat substitute market will grow from $18.7 billion in 2018 to $22.9 billion in 2023. Barclays is forecasting even greater growth.

The rapid growth of the plant-based protein foods won’t be the sole province of these new start-ups for long. “Big Food” is about to put its big feet into the competitive game.

Nestle is entering the business in a big way, initially in Europe with a meatless burger supplied to McDonalds throughout Germany.

Major U.S. meat and poultry brands Tyson Foods and Perdue Farms have launched meat and vegetable blended products. There’s also speculation they may introduce their own versions similar to Impossible and Beyond.

Click here to read more detailed coverage from CNN Business.

Growth may not be all smooth-sailing

While the recent sharp rise in demand for plant-based protein alternative foods is undeniable, that road ahead may not be without some obstacles. Any popular trend will catch the eye of critics concerned with transparent communication to consumers.

A feature in the July 1 edition of the news web publication Quartz noted that recently some of the unique ingredients used in the plant-based meat products, and how they are processed, have come under scrutiny. Impossible Foods uses a genetically modified yeast to produce a key ingredient in its process that FDA questioned but later approved. So far any such potential concerns haven’t dented the sharp growth now capturing the attention of the market.

Trend to watch for SSGA Members

The explosion in plant-based protein foods is a trend Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance (SSGA) member companies should pay attention to – particularly soy food ingredient suppliers and edible pea and pulse sourcing companies – since soy, chickpeas and pulses are key ingredients in the new-fangled burger and foods craze.

Change is constant in the food business. Consumers today are ever more interested in where their food comes from, how it’s produced and how healthy it is. Cutting edge U.S. and international food companies may have a fresh interest in teaming up with SSGA’s unique roster of field-to-table, identity preserved grain and oilseed supply chain member companies.

Bruce Abbe is the Strategic Advisor for Trade and Transportation for SSGA. Reach Bruce at 952-253-6231 or drop him a line here.

Handle grain with a gentle touch

By Dale Hildebrant for Farm & Ranch Guide

With a growing acreage of pulses, dry edible beans and food-grade soybeans, the gentle handling of those crops is a growing concern for the farmers who raise them and the businesses that handle them. This is different from the way grain handling has traditionally been viewed – get the job done as soon as possible and don’t give a lot of thought to how the grain or seeds are handled. However, this can prove to be a costly error.

“The commodity we started to look at as far as gentle handling was dry edible beans,” said Ken Hellevang, Extension ag engineer specializing in grain handling. “We did some research looking at handling beans and a lot of the things we found there would apply to other situations as well.

“Wheat has been pretty tolerant of whatever we did. Corn is a little more fragile, but still pretty durable. When we look at soybeans, though, that is more of a balancing act and for anything food-grade, we are wanting to drastically reduce the amount of breakage,” he added.

All grains become more fragile to handle at lower moisture contents, including cereals, Hellevang noted.

“It has always been a trade-off, even with corn, that when you look at multiple handlings of the crop, as the moisture decreases you get more breakage.”

For instance, he said once the moisture level of soybeans drops below 11 percent, the breakage increases significantly. Beans, such as pintos, can safely be stored over winter at a 16 percent moisture level, but if that storage period gets extended into the summer months, it’s necessary to bring that moisture level down to a 10 percent level.

“What I typically recommend is once temperatures in the spring warm to 40 degrees, which means around 55 degrees during the day and dropping down to freezing at night, we use the aeration fans to dry down the grain further,” he said. “Usually the relative humidity in May is fairly dry and just running the aeration fan is all that will be required.”

Those lower moisture levels require care in transporting the commodities.

Temperature

Seed damage based on temperature was also studied in detail with dry edible beans, according to Hellevang. When the beans got below freezing, processors were reporting huge losses from increased damage to the beans.

“We found that when the temperature dropped from 75 degrees to 55 degrees, we saw an increase in the breakage potential – so the colder the grain is, the more likely we are going to have breakage,” he said. “The years when we are out there handling frozen grain, we are likely to see increased damage as opposed to if that crop was 50 or 60 degrees.

“Ideally, if we were planning to handle that grain, it might be better to warm the grain a little bit, bring it back to 40 or so degrees, rather than leaving it at 20 degrees to minimize the potential for breakage during handling,” he added.

Hellevang explained two different ways this could be accomplished. First is turning on the heat in the bin for a day or two to bring the temperature up, while the other is not cooling the grain so much to start with.

“We used to recommend bringing the grain temperature to just below freezing if it was going to be held over the winter months, but there are some now advocating for the temperature to not be brought below freezing, but rather only in that 35 to 40 degree range,” he said. “If there is an expectation we are going to market that grain during the winter, we might leave the grain temperature in that 35-40 degree range would be the best goal, rather than bringing it down below freezing.”

Moving grain

Most of the grain conveyor manufactures now have tube or belt conveyor systems that don’t have the abrasiveness of augers.

“The primary point where we see damage occurring is on augers that are running partially full and at full speed, or where the flighting is worn and you have a lot of pinch points,” Hellevang explained. “If you have a new auger and you are running it full, probably the amount of damage you experience is acceptable.

Falling grain

Seed damage can also occur if you are dropping beans 40 or 50 feet onto a concrete bin floor. That damage will continue to occur as a cushion of grain develops, although to a lesser degree, Hellevang said.

To minimize this damage, a piece of equipment called a “bean ladder” is used. This zig-zags the flow of grain and slows it down to lessen the impact of the fall.

Finally, Hellevang stressed grain storage time is based on whole, sound kernels, and if the kernel breaks, that exposes the carbohydrates and starch inside the kernel and makes it more susceptible to spoilage. The more broken kernels and cracked kernels the more potential there will be for mold growth and spoilage of grain in the storage facility.

“The less mechanical damage we can do the better it is going to be,” he said.

SSGA member profile: Curt Petrich of HC International, Inc.

When looking at what HC International, Inc. (HCI) all entails, you first have to look behind the scenes at who made the company what it is today. One contributor has been Curt Petrich, one of the founders and owners of HCI, who is also currently serving as the chairman for the Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance (SSGA).

HCI was founded in 1999 and specializes in agricultural products, ingredients and consumer packages products. They produce non-GMO and organic soybeans that primarily get made into natto, sprout, soy milk and tofu. To a smaller degree, they also fall into the miso category.

“When it comes to making our products, HCI is deliberate in the process, ensuring we create a quality product,” he says. “We listen to our customer’s needs and wants, which sometimes requires additional segregation and sampling at the grower level, setting us apart from many of the competitors. HCI also offers market updates that give an unbiased opinion of the market situation, helping the customer understand opportunities and risks within the supply chain.”

When SSGA first formed Jan. 2019, HCI became a member because of what they could offer.

“SSGA is committed to focusing on the priorities, opportunities and challenges in the IP soy and grain business,” Petrich says. “SSGA is a strong voice for policies and programs that will positively affect our member companies. SSGA is and will be the organization that will listen to the industry, address our concerns and be upfront and transparent on what can be done. I think although we are a small organization, we will be quite influential and powerful for the IP industry.”

Curt Petrich adds that SSGA has such a solid foundation due to the strong leadership it has been under since being formed.

“We have already witnessed many accomplishments and strides since the formation of SSGA,” Petrich says. “The future looks bright under our new leadership and staff.”

US SOY GTE Gold Sponsor is a gold standard in specialty soy, grains

The DeLong Company is no stranger to helping build up an industry. With more than a century of success, it’s safe to say the family business understands the importance of reliable products, services and well-timed information.

To do those three things well, The DeLong Company is actively engaged with industry leaders, buyers and other ag organizations. Sometimes that means providing speakers at regional outreach events, promoting U.S. identity-preserved (IP) soy and grains or networking with global buyers. Among all those activities, DeLong has been a big supporter in the growth of the U.S. SOY Global Trade Exchange & Specialty Grains Conference, hosted each year by the U.S. Soybean Export Council and Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance (formerly Midwest Shippers Association).

“USSEC and Midwest Shippers, now SSGA, do a great job bringing in groups from throughout the world for U.S. companies to meet and network with,” says Austin DeLong, who heads non-GMO soybean export sales for the company.

The DeLong Company has been a Gold Sponsor of the conference since the two groups started the joint conference in 2013 in Davenport, Iowa. DeLong says bringing together suppliers and buyers from the U.S. and abroad can be a more meaningful way to build business relationships.

“There is only so much you can do via a phone call or emails,” he says. “The conference brings a lot of people together in one location.”

He’s quick to point out that the conference isn’t just for exporters, but has something for everyone in the industry, from testing equipment, to logistics, to farmer producers and agriculture organizations.

“The locations have worked well the past few years as well,” DeLong says. “We’ve been able to bring trade teams visiting the conference to our facilities to show them firsthand our operations.”

SSGA Executive Director Eric Wenberg gives kudos to The DeLong Company’s commitment to the U.S. IP soya and grains industry.

“To have an industry leader step up year after year to support the conference, along with USSEC and SSGA, is amazing,” Wenberg says. “Commitment from the top has a way of trickling down and inspiring, and The DeLong Company’s commitment to the GTE and the industry does just that.”

DeLong says he takes a lot of pride knowing his family’s business, which spans more than 100 years, connects well globally.

“Often times when chatting with customers, it is interesting to find out so many are also family businesses, and that connection is pretty special.”

How will delayed planting affect yields?

By David Kee, director of research at the Minnesota Soybean Research & Promotion Council

The wet spring has delayed planting across much of the U.S. to the point where the insurance subject “Prevent Plant” has become a hot topic in the industry.

Does this mean we can anticipate a low yield harvest? No, but it does mean the probability of a reduced soybean yield at harvest is increasing.

What else does it mean? Risk will increase. Risk for yield, seed size, seed quality, damage from pests, etc., will increase. As the window to grow a crop decreases, and the ability of the crop to compensate for environmental pressures decreases, the importance of implementing timely management decisions increases.

At the heart of the discussion is yield, which is nothing more than the number of beans per acre multiplied by the average weight of the bean. As the number of beans per acre increases, yield increases. An increase in the average bean size also leads to a yield increase. Increase both and yield dramatically increases.

Quality may be impacted also, dependent on the industry. Small seed is preferred for natto, but tofu producers want very large, clear beans.

Increasing the number of beans per acre is accomplished in a number of ways, as is increasing the average bean weight. All of which requires environment factors (heat units, water, nutrition, etc.) that are impacted by time. Delayed planting reduces the amount of time to accumulate the heat units, develop the plant, increase the number of nodes per plant, etc. Late planting reduces the opportunity to develop a high number of beans per acre and to develop a heavier bean. Reduced opportunity results in increased risk for both grower and contractor.

Variances in weather increase this risk. Most of the soybean production region is experiencing high soil moisture. Once planted, if the temperature is correct, beans will emerge and grow rapidly. Like last year, if the weather cooperates (adequate rainfall and normal to late fall/frost), high yields may still occur.  However, unirrigated beans will need rainfall to continue growth. A short drought may delay the onset of flowering. A droughty situation may start the process of senescence early. In addition, a rain after Reproductive stage 6 (R6) might cause a flush of new growth and flowering. These new beans may squander plant resources, resulting in low bean weights and increased numbers of green beans (immature beans) at harvest. This is not an uncommon scenario with southern USA beans. If an early killing frost occurs, a similar situation arises with northern U.S. beans. Green beans reduce meal and oil value of commodity beans. For certain food grade beans, excessive green beans require more intense management using color sorters, etc., for the product to maintain standards.

Delayed planting may not reduce the risk of pest damage. It may increase risk for damage, as additional delays in plant growth, flowering, pod set, bean fill, etc. decreases the time the plants to complete the activities to make beans. Delayed planting increases the importance of timely decisions. The reduced time frame also increases the impact of a bad decision – utilizing the wrong pest control measure – as the plant has less time to recover.

What can be done? Preplan, scout, communicate and stay in front of problems. Timely distribution of information becomes even more important for both growers and contractors. A quiet conversation over a cup of coffee may have the highest ROI of any investment.

  1. https://www.agprofessional.com/article/planting-delayed-here-are-your-prevent-plant-options
  2. https://www.agprofessional.com/article/prevent-plant-most-profitable-option-2019

David Kee is director of research for the Minnesota Soybean Research & Promotion Council. Reach David at 507-388-1635 or drop him a line here.

Weather, trade wars continue to wreak havoc on grain transportation

By Bruce Abbe

Major weather problems continue to have an extended impact on bulk grain shipping. To add insult to injury, major trade war escalation last week has created even more uncertainty for both bulk and containerized grain transportation from the U.S.

River Shipping
Flooding on the Mississippi River and its main shipping tributaries continues to hold back grain barge shipping on the inland waterways system, the Associated Press reported yesterday. The 2,350-mile Mississippi moves millions of tons of grain down river to export markets each year, and brings fertilizer and other inputs up river.

Flooding and high water have shut down the river in places, keeping the barges from moving to the Louisiana exporter bulk loading terminals. While a number of the locks that closed in March due to flooding have reopened, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers doesn’t expect the river to be fully open until possibly June

Even if the locks were open, “many of these barges wouldn’t be able to get here anyway,” Sam Heilig, a Corps spokeswoman at Rock Island, Illinois told AP. “Because the water’s so high, there’s not enough clearance to get under some of the bridges.”

USDA’s Grain Transportation Report (GTR) last week said year-to-date grain movement on the Mississippi, Ohio and Arkansas rivers has fallen below recent years. Barge tonnages through those three locking rivers were down 32 percent from the three-year average and 24 percent below last year.

The flood challenges have moved further down river enabling some upper river locks to reopen. But the system is a far cry from its normal continuous barge traffic from Minneapolis to the Gulf by mid-May.

Rails
USDA’s GTR reported that the Class 1 railroads are reporting higher rated in the “secondary market” auctions for guaranteed delivery of rail cars. Lack of grain movement by barge is shifting some traffic to rail.

Nevertheless, the U.S.-China trade war, coupled with a serious Asian Swine Flu epidemic leading to liquidation of swine herds, has also put a damper on grain shipments for export.

Bulk ocean rates
On a positive note, dry bulk ocean freight rates reported by USDA remain low for bulk commodities, including grain.

Container shipping
International intermodal container shipping, however, has and will feel the impact of the U.S.-China trade war. Last week, the Trump administration concluded the Chinese side had backed away from demands it reportedly had agreed to in negotiations, resulting in new tariffs. The nearly year-long trade war has led to huge imbalances of equipment.

In late fall, the threat of the 10 percent tariff on many Chinese manufacturing products mainly originally set for Dec. 31 led to a major surge in imports due to “front-loading” of shipments. That deadline was moved to March, and the surge continued with extra load ships chartered, in addition to regular container ship strings calling on west coast ports.

Meanwhile exports dropped off the cliff. Last year, U.S. containerized exports to China dropped 24 percent compared to 2017, according to the Journal of Commerce.

The surge created huge congestion issues at the ports for storing containers, access to trucking chassis for moving containers, and rail service and equipment handling at inland rail terminals for imports.

The problems were most acute at the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex, the largest in the U.S., which handles one-third of U.S. import traffic.

Last week, Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, sounded sharp criticism of current truck handling systems at the ports. Seroka called for reforms to improved port fluidity, including adoption of the port-wide trucker appointment system and relocation of chassis storage to near-dock sites to be prepared for an expected return to high demand and congestion in the weeks and months ahead.

Near-term heavy inbound traffic will be coming with imports of consumer products for retailers for the school year starting late August into early fall. The normal peak season for product imports for the Holiday season is late fall. Despite higher tariffs on Chinese goods, the time frame is too narrow for manufacturing of those goods to shift to other countries quickly.

The U.S.-China trade war is a significant issue for all port container terminals, Seroka told JOC. China is the largest trading partner with the LA/LB ports.

The ‘huge equipment imbalance’ caused by import surges coming from front-loading shipments, combined with the simultaneous drop in exports (read: ag exports) has disrupted normal flows of equipment eastbound and westbound.

“We cannot (afford to) underestimate the impact the trade war is having,” Seroka said. Seroka has spoken at past Midwest Shippers Association conferences and has been a strong supporter of MSA’s – now the Specialty Soya and Grain Alliance  – efforts to expand intermodal rail service from the Upper Midwest to Southern California.

Click here for further JOC coverage on how the sudden escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China last week, after a deal reportedly was near, “casts a shadow on trans-Pacific containerized supply chains, elevating risk for ocean carriers.”

Bruce Abbe is senior director of specialty grains, products and transportation for SSGA. Reach Bruce at 952-253-6231 or drop him a line here.

It takes two to tangle in a trade war; premiums on food grade soya, corn trying to climb

By Eric Wenberg

The week started on a grim note with the Trump administration threat over the weekend to raise more tariffs against China as negotiations between the two countries were approaching what may be a final round this week. A Chinese delegation is set to arrive in Washington D.C. on Wednesday. The news reacted to story of the President’s tweets over the weekend, threatening China with the higher tariffs. Reports are this issue didn’t just jump on the President’s smart phone by itself. In meetings with top U.S. trade officials last week, China began walking back on firm promises made at the table. This is a fluid situation, and it’s important to keep in mind that trade negotiations always look worst right before they finish. Meanwhile, as the news rocked back and forth, farmers, brokers, and shippers, are feeling the whiplash and soybean futures prices are going up and down this week on the news.

As U.S. farmers are planting and contracting ahead for stability, there is plenty of weather to bring volatility to the market in contracts without unresolved trade negotiations. The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Market News report on May 3 regarding prices and premiums for conventional, non-GM soya and corn showed July basis price contracts had climbed up some from last year’s July drop. While prices are not where anyone wants, the present levels will keep the U.S. competitive in food grade soya and corn in export markets against other high-quality exporters. Brokers are noting that premiums might fetch from $70-100 per acre more on these crops in some regions. Yes, yields and quality might be a bit off other crops, but that’s a worthwhile return on investment for a farm of conventional food-grade field crops. In the May 3 report, USDA noted that compared to its report last week, demand is very good with moderate trade. Grower bids for corn and soybeans were steady. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress Report of April 29, corn planted was 15 percent, the same percentage planted for the same time last year. Soybeans planted was 3 percent versus 5 percent for the same time last year.

Click here to read the May 3, 2019 Agricultural Marketing Service Market News report for non-GMO/GE grain.