Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean imports and prices return

U.S. organic soybean imports returned in May after a weak April. 39,000 MT of whole organic soybeans came into the country in May, which is more than 32 times the prior month and 2 times the prior year. It is also the largest monthly volume since October. The imports were driven heavily by Africa, with record-setting volumes of 22,000 MT from Ghana and 12,000 MT from Togo. The remaining 5,000 MT came from Turkey. Organic soybean meal imports were up 147% from the prior month to 17,000 MT, but down 42% year-over-year. Turkey was the largest exporter at 10,000 MT. Africa was the second largest source, with 2,500 MT from Ethiopia, 2,400 MT from Togo, and 300 MT from Nigeria. India also sent 1,300 MT during May.

Organic soybean prices returned after several straight months of decline. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $28.50 in May, which is up from $22.92 in April and down from $39.00 a year prior. The price increase was driven by several anomalously high contract values, so it may not be reflective of broader market trends. In Iowa the feed-grade organic soybean price for May was $22.00, which is down $1.00 from the prior month.

With planting wrapped up, the market has been quiet as participants wait to see how the moisture and quality picture develops. The long position on soybeans that has been putting pressure on the market remains in place, which has kept purchasers hesitant to contract significant additional volumes. The long position is expected to be maintained through at least the balance of the year, which should keep continued bearish pressure on pricing. A major supply factor to watch in coming months is if declines in U.S. pricing puts the squeeze on further organic soybean imports.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter