Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean acreage remains strong

Organic soybean imports into the United States bounced back in August but remained below historic levels. An estimated 13,000 MT of organic soybeans were imported in August, which is down 64% from the prior year but up over eight times from the prior month. Argentina provided the vast majority of the imports with 11,000 MT. The remaining volume came primarily from Canada, with an additional volume of under 20 MT coming in from China. Maritime organic soybean meal imports were up in August at 32,000 MT, up 11% y/y and 21% m/m. Turkey was the largest source with 12,000 MT, followed by Ethiopia with 6,000 MT. Other African countries sent significant volumes, including 4,000 MT from Togo, 3,000 MT from Nigeria, 1,000 MT from Benin, and smaller volumes from Ghana and Mozambique. India sent another 4,000 MT during August. The remaining volume is covered by volumes of less than 1,000 MT from China and Brazil.

Domestic organic soybean prices rose a small amount during August. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $21.00 during July, which is up $0.12 from the prior month and down $14.02 from a year prior. With harvest starting soon, soybean market activity has been slow as the market awaits a better idea of how the harvest looks.

Mercaris’ Acreage Analyzer tool was updated in August, which provides initial estimates of 2023 organic acreage. Mercaris estimates that organic soybean acreage fell by just over 4% in 2023, which is a smaller decline than had been expected. This would make 2023 the second largest year for organic soybean acreage on record, below just the prior year. Organic soybean acreage remaining strong could be a bearish force for the market, especially since a large amount of that crop has not been forward contracted. Overall organic field crop acreage rose by about 1%, including a 5% bump in corn acres and a 7% increase in wheat acres.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter