Mercaris Murmurings: Positive early harvest indications

Organic soybean imports in October 2023 were down sharply to 1,200 MT, a decline of 87% y/y and 96% m/m. No country sent more than 1,000 MT in October, with the largest source being Paraguay with 700 MT. Togo was the second largest with 200, followed by Argentina with 100 MT. Uruguay, Canada and China all sent volumes under 100 MT during October.

Domestic organic soybean prices recovered in September. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $22.00 during July, which is up $1.24 from the prior month and down $12.98 from a year prior. Market activity has been picking up as the organic soybean harvest begins.

Indications for the organic soybean harvest have been overall positive in the United States, but there is some regional variety. The western Corn Belt region has generally seen higher-than-expected yields, though not anything approaching a bumper crop. Generally improved soil moisture across the Corn Belt region contributed to stronger yields than last year, but some areas of western Minnesota still had some soil moisture issues that kept yields below trend. Nebraska and surrounding states in the High Plains have been weaker than other regions, with dry soil conditions causing some hits to yield. Acres that were not irrigated saw significant yield hits, but irrigated acres put out expected yields.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter