Organic soybean imports in February 2025 were estimated at 27,100 MT, up 159% from the month in the prior year. The Black Sea supplied most of the imports during February, with Turkey supplying 20,000 MT and Ukraine supplying 3,800 MT. The remaining 3,300 MT came from Canada.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for the week March 21, 2025, was $20.14/bushel, which is up $0.12 from a month prior and up $0.32 from a year prior.

If U.S. tariffs on products covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement resume in April, Canadian organic soy products will be unable to compete with supplies from domestic producers and other exporters. The increased cost of Canadian soy would increase reliance on organic soy from other regions, such as the Black Sea and Africa, to cover the needs of American end-users.

Canada provided 18% of U.S. organic soybean meal and 13% of organic soybean imports over the 2023-24 marketing year, according to Argus estimates and U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

Organic soy prices could increase in the short term, as supply chains adjust to avoid the 25% tariff placed on imports from Canada. The loss of U.S. demand for Canadian organic soymeal could also push some organic soybean imports supply from Canada to the U.S. to be used by U.S. crushers, market contacts said.

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter. 

Organic soybean imports in December 2024 are estimated at 20,000 MT, more than twice that of the same month in the prior year. Argentina supplied 9,000t and Uruguay provided an additional 6,500t. Canada, Turkey and Ethiopia all provided smaller volumes. 

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for the week ended Jan. 24, 2025, was $20.08/bushel, which is up $0.60 from a month prior and down $0.27 from a year prior.  

Most end-users can wait until market uncertainty is resolved before resuming buying. Most end-users are covered through the first quarter of the year and can wait until later in 2025 until they need to start buying for the second quarter, according to market contacts. 

The primary source of uncertainty is proposed tariffs from the Trump administration. Now that Trump has taken office, market participants expect tariffs to be implemented on Mexico, Canada and China as soon as Feb. 1. Canada supplied 18pc of U.S. organic soybean meal imports during the 2023-24 marketing year according to Argus estimates.  

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter. 

Organic soybean imports in September 2024 are estimated at 63,300t (metric tonnes), a 104% increase from the same month in 2023. Imports were also up 152% from the prior month. Argentina was the majority supplier with 58,200t. Turkey was the next largest supplier with 4,800t. The remaining 300t was sourced form Paraguay.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the US Corn Belt for the week ended Oct. 21, 2024, was $20.07/bushel, which is up $0.36 from the prior month and down $0.34 from 2023.

It is expected that producers will become more active in securing contracts as well, as growers will need to balance storing a large organic soybean harvest in addition to a large organic corn harvest. Market contacts have indicated that due to unattractive spot pricing, organic producers are more inclined to sell new crop organic soybeans and store organic corn until 2025. If this occurs along with increased end user demand, the U.S. organic soybean market is likely to become much more active by the end of October.

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter. 

Organic soybean imports in July 2024 are estimated at 27,200t (metric tons), compared to just 100t in the same month of the prior year. Imports were also 10 times that of the prior month. Argentina was the majority supplier with 26,500t. Paraguay supplied the remaining 700t.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for the week ended August 23, 2024, was $19.61/bushel, which is down $0.30 from the prior month and $1.74 from the prior year.

Containerized freight rates for importing organic soybeans into the East Coast from South America have risen significantly in recent weeks, according to market contacts, while bulk shipment costs have remained relatively unchanged. The increase in containerized freight rates comes right as new crop exports from South America are becoming available. The high freight rates for containerized shipments are likely to make any organic soybeans imported this way uncompetitive with domestic soybeans. Containers have become more difficult to come by, which has also made it hard for some importers to find shippers with sufficient capacity. Since bulk rates have not seen a similar increase, more bulk shipments of organic soybeans, especially out of South America, are expected until container rates decline. The greater cost of importing organic soybeans could help provide bullish pressure to domestic organic soybeans if bulk shipments are unable to meet East Coast demand.

Energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus acquired Mercaris, the leading provider of organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities in the US, in June 2023. The company is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter. 

Organic soybean imports in May 2024 were estimated at 5,500t (metric tons), down 87% from the prior year and 70% from the prior month. Canada supplied an estimated 3,000t, followed by Paraguay with 1,000t. Togo was the primary source of African soybeans with 800t. The balance is covered by 200t from Argentina and 300t from Turkey.

The Argus AgriMarkets Organic and non-GMO service weekly delivered spot price for feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt for June 21, 2024, was $19.50, which is up $0.05 from the prior month but down $3.86 from the prior year. Trading activity is expected to increase in July once buyers have a better sense of early crop conditions.

Importers are keeping an eye on the threat of a strike by longshoremen along the East Coast and Gulf Coast. Talks between the union and ports recently stalled, which could lead to the first port strike on the East Coast in decades. The peak season for the import of Argentine organic soybeans starts in the summer, so a long-lasting strike could make bringing in the recent Argentine organic soybean harvest difficult. Market participants are also keeping an eye on the chance of a rail strike affecting the two largest rail companies in Canada, Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City. The union is expected to hold a second strike vote in late June, which could lead to a strike in mid-July if successful. While some of the volume would be moved via trucks, freight rates are expected to rise. A backup of imports being unloaded onto trains could impact exports of Canadian organic soybean meal to the U.S., as well as prevent imported African organic soybeans from making their way into Canada to be crushed.