Mercaris Murmurings: Organic soybean market remains uncertain

U.S. organic soybean imports in February saw a surge back up to 33,000 metric tons (MT) after less than 2,000 MT came in just a month prior. This is the largest month of imports since August 2022. Despite the strong recovery from the prior month, February imports were still down 10% y/y. Turkey was the main source of organic whole soybeans in February, with over 31,000 MT. Cumulative imports through February for the current marketing year have reached 135,000 MT, which is 17% above the prior marketing year.

Organic soybean prices during the first quarter of 2023 have continued to come off the highs registered last year. During the biweekly period ending March 11, 2023, the price of organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $22.50, down from over $25.00 a month prior and $37.00 the year before. Soybean markets have overall been quiet with most buyers already having ample enough stocks. New crop contracting has been especially quiet, with most parties willing to wait to see how the price evolves over the coming months. The few bids that have been made for new crop soybeans are running below current levels.

Significant uncertainty remains unresolved in the organic soybean market, which provides the possibility for volatility in the coming months. Continued droughts in the major producing regions of Argentina have already led to notable crop losses while ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea could affect supply coming out of the region. It will be crucial to see in the coming months how U.S. acreage changes, as the declining price could steer more acres back to organic corn. Right now, both sides of the market will continue waiting on the sidelines until some of the above open issues are resolved.