Organic soybean imports were up in September to an estimated 32,000 MT, an increase of 325% y/y and 144% m/m. This large volume was driven by 19,000 MT coming out of Ghana, which is the second largest monthly volume ever seen from the country. Argentina was the second largest source of organic soybeans in September with 11,000 MT. Paraguay, India, and Nigeria each also exported less than 1,000 MT each. Maritime organic soybean meal imports declined in September to 20,000 MT, down 27% y/y and 37% m/m, with most of the imports coming out of Africa. Togo was the largest African exporter with 5,000 MT, followed by Benin with 3,000 MT, Ethiopia with 3,000 MT, and Nigeria with 2,000 MT. Ghana and Mozambique each also exported less than 1,000 MT. The largest organic soybean meal outside of Africa in September was India with 4,000 MT. The remaining 1,000 MT were sourced from Brazil.

Domestic organic soybean prices recovered in September. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $22.00 during July, which is up $1.24 from the prior month and down $12.98 from a year prior. Market activity has been picking up as the organic soybean harvest begins.

Throughout the 2022/23 marketing year, which concluded in August, 9.3 million bushels of organic whole soybeans were imported into the United States. This is a decline of 17% from the prior year but above 2020/21 levels. Canada was one of the major exporters to see a major drop in exports, with a 48% decline from the prior marketing year to 637,000 bushels. Argentina and Turkey also saw large drops, with year-over-year decreases in volume of 24% and 19% respectively. India almost fully vanished as an exporter of organic soybeans to the United States, with a drop from over 400,000 bushels in 2021/22 to under 9,000 in 2022/23. These large drops were partially offset by the significant expansion of African exports. The largest African exporters of organic soybeans to the United States were Togo with a 171% increase to 1.6 million bushels and Ghana with a 108% increase to 900,000 bushels.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter

After a strong June, U.S. organic soybean imports were quiet in July. An estimated 1,400 MT of organic soybeans came in during July, all of which were sourced from Canada. This is a decline of 97% from the prior year. Organic soybean meal imports were busier, with 27,000 MT arriving during July. This is a 5% increase from the prior year and a 37% increase over the prior month. Turkey was the majority supplier with 16,000 MT. African nations were the next largest source, with 7,000 MT from Ethiopia, 2,000 MT from Togo and another 1,000 MT collected from other African countries. The remaining 1,000 MT were sourced from India.

Domestic organic soybean prices fell just slightly during July. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $21.00 during July, which is down $0.52 from the prior month and $15.30 from July 2022. Soybean markets have not seen significant activity as buyers await clearer pictures of what harvest will look like and what demand will be during the coming marketing year.

Russia’s announcement that it’s pulling out of the deal to allow the safe export of grains out of Ukraine has raised concerns about how the loss of Ukrainian supplies could impact U.S. organic markets. Ukraine has historically been a strong source of organic soybean imports but has fallen off due to the impacts of the war. Ukraine has sent just 9,000 MT of organic soybeans during the 2022/23 marketing year, compared to an average of 49,000 MT in the preceding five marketing years, with the last imports into the United States coming in February. There is also still time for a new deal to be agreed on before harvest reaches full swing and significant volumes would be expected to be exported out of Ukraine. One major source of risk is further escalation, which could lead to insurance brokers refusing to cover ships leaving the region and would make any further export nearly impossible.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter

U.S. organic soybean imports returned in May after a weak April. 39,000 MT of whole organic soybeans came into the country in May, which is more than 32 times the prior month and 2 times the prior year. It is also the largest monthly volume since October. The imports were driven heavily by Africa, with record-setting volumes of 22,000 MT from Ghana and 12,000 MT from Togo. The remaining 5,000 MT came from Turkey. Organic soybean meal imports were up 147% from the prior month to 17,000 MT, but down 42% year-over-year. Turkey was the largest exporter at 10,000 MT. Africa was the second largest source, with 2,500 MT from Ethiopia, 2,400 MT from Togo, and 300 MT from Nigeria. India also sent 1,300 MT during May.

Organic soybean prices returned after several straight months of decline. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $28.50 in May, which is up from $22.92 in April and down from $39.00 a year prior. The price increase was driven by several anomalously high contract values, so it may not be reflective of broader market trends. In Iowa the feed-grade organic soybean price for May was $22.00, which is down $1.00 from the prior month.

With planting wrapped up, the market has been quiet as participants wait to see how the moisture and quality picture develops. The long position on soybeans that has been putting pressure on the market remains in place, which has kept purchasers hesitant to contract significant additional volumes. The long position is expected to be maintained through at least the balance of the year, which should keep continued bearish pressure on pricing. A major supply factor to watch in coming months is if declines in U.S. pricing puts the squeeze on further organic soybean imports.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter

U.S. organic soybean imports in March reached 22,000 MT, a decline of 14% from the prior year. For the second straight month, Turkey was the largest source of organic soybeans to the U.S. with half of the total import volume coming from Turkey. Argentina shipped an unseasonably large volume of 6,000 MT in March, where normally they do not ship significant volumes until the latter half of the year. The remaining source of organic soybeans was Togo, with 3,000 MT.

Organic soybean prices continued the downward trend that has been seen throughout the year. So far in the month of April, the average price of feed-grade soybeans delivered in the U.S. Corn Belt was $24.40, which is down from $24.60 in March and $39 in April of last year. Trade activity has been unseasonably quiet, especially in new crop. Processors are comfortable working through current supplies, and are mostly unwilling to make new contracts unless prices are below the current market.

In the coming weeks, planting intentions for organic soybeans will become clearer as planting season picks up. Organic soybean seed sellers have indicated that seed sales are below what they were last year, which suggests that planting acreage will come in lower than 2022. The supply situation in Argentina remains dire, with droughts and a freeze having already wiped out at least half of the crop. The deal with Russia to ship grain out of Ukraine is set to end in mid-May, which would end the possibility of further Ukrainian imports if allowed to expire. Both sides of the market remain content to wait and see how the price evolves throughout the growing season.

In October, U.S. organic soybean imports increased significantly, reaching 44,800 MT after only 8,400 MT in September. Over October, most organic soybean imports came from Argentina with 23,600 MT, up from 4,400 MT, in September. There also were 14,000 MT of organic soybean imports from Turkey after none in September. This rebound now puts the total U.S. organic soybean imports at 48,000 MT for 2022/23. Total organic soybean meal maritime imports reached 33,900 MT over October, up 623% y/y and 106% from September. The most significant number of imports came from Turkey, with 24,000 MT, with another 7,000 MT from India. The rest came from Ethiopia and Togo. A solid start to the marketing year after total U.S. organic soybean meal maritime imports reached 280,000 MT in 2021/22.

Throughout the last year, there has been an assumption that organic soybean imports would lessen following the trade restrictions in India and the war in Ukraine. However, with record-high prices, organic soybean imports have continued to be strong throughout 2022. With the strong imports and the vast increase in U.S. production, the supply has continued to increase despite these record-high prices.

As the end of 2022 approaches, soybean prices have begun to decline. Over November, prices have been averaging $32.30 and dipping as low as $27.40. Even though prices have continued to lower, organic soybean imports continue to flood into the country. The total organic soybean supply continues to grow with an increase in U.S. production of organic soybeans and continued strong imports. For now, these prices are still high enough that countries want to send the U.S. organic soybeans, but at a certain point, these prices will hit a level that the organic soybean imports will slow down. It is most likely that these prices will continue to drop into the coming year, and as prices drop, organic soybean imports should start to taper off.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.