Organic soybean imports into the United States bounced back in August but remained below historic levels. An estimated 13,000 MT of organic soybeans were imported in August, which is down 64% from the prior year but up over eight times from the prior month. Argentina provided the vast majority of the imports with 11,000 MT. The remaining volume came primarily from Canada, with an additional volume of under 20 MT coming in from China. Maritime organic soybean meal imports were up in August at 32,000 MT, up 11% y/y and 21% m/m. Turkey was the largest source with 12,000 MT, followed by Ethiopia with 6,000 MT. Other African countries sent significant volumes, including 4,000 MT from Togo, 3,000 MT from Nigeria, 1,000 MT from Benin, and smaller volumes from Ghana and Mozambique. India sent another 4,000 MT during August. The remaining volume is covered by volumes of less than 1,000 MT from China and Brazil.

Domestic organic soybean prices rose a small amount during August. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $21.00 during July, which is up $0.12 from the prior month and down $14.02 from a year prior. With harvest starting soon, soybean market activity has been slow as the market awaits a better idea of how the harvest looks.

Mercaris’ Acreage Analyzer tool was updated in August, which provides initial estimates of 2023 organic acreage. Mercaris estimates that organic soybean acreage fell by just over 4% in 2023, which is a smaller decline than had been expected. This would make 2023 the second largest year for organic soybean acreage on record, below just the prior year. Organic soybean acreage remaining strong could be a bearish force for the market, especially since a large amount of that crop has not been forward contracted. Overall organic field crop acreage rose by about 1%, including a 5% bump in corn acres and a 7% increase in wheat acres.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter

U.S. organic soybean imports saw another strong month in June. The United States imported 28,000 MT of organic soybeans in June, which is a 286% y/y increase but a 27% drop from the prior month. The majority of these imports came from Argentina, which exported 21,000 MT to the United States in June. Turkey was the next largest source with 7,000 MT. The balance came from Togo with 500 MT and China with 20 MT. Organic soybean meal imports totaled 33,000 MT in June, which is down 29% from the prior year but up 63% from the prior month. The largest exporter was Turkey with 13,000 MT. Africa also exported significant volumes, with 9,000 MT from Togo and 6,000 MT from Ethiopia. India sent 3,000 MT. India exported 3,000 MT of soybean meal while Ghana, China, and Brazil each all sent small volumes of under 500 MT each.

Domestic soybean prices declined in June after the bump seen in June. The price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $21.00 in June, which is down $6.85 from May (though only down $1.48 from April) and down $16.19 from the prior June. Soybean markets have continued to be quiet as users work their way through their existing long stocks. Limited market activity has limited the potential for pricing volatility.

The primary area of interest for the soybean market over the past few weeks has been weather, especially the changing drought situation across much of the major growing regions of the Corn Belt. Based on Mercaris’ estimates of where organic soybean acreage is, drought conditions have worsened for the U.S. organic soybean crop. Mercaris estimates that 8.2% of the organic soybean crop is currently under extreme or exceptional drought compared to just 1.6% at this time last year. This is driven primarily by worsening drought in Iowa, Nebraska and Missouri. There has been some rain in mid-July to help alleviate the worst of the drought in some areas, but continued dryness in others will continue to push down yields if more rain doesn’t arrive soon.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter

Imports of organic soybean – both whole beans and meal – into the U.S. were quiet in April. Just 1,200 MT of organic soybeans came into the U.S. in April, which is 96% below the prior year and down 95% from the prior month. Both the Black Sea and Argentina – which are large sources of organic soybean imports – did not have any volume come in during April. The volume that did come in was primarily from Togo with 1,100 MT. The remaining 100 MT were sourced from Madagascar.

Organic soybean prices ticked down further during April. During April, the price of feed-grade organic soybeans delivered in the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $22.90, down from $24.20 in March and $39.00 from a year prior. Contracting activity has picked up – especially for new crop – but still remains quiet. Most buyers are still long on soybeans from last year and are hesitant to add to their stocks at current prices.

Soybean planting has been ahead of schedule in the largest organic soybean-producing states. As of the last Crop Progress & Condition Report, Illinois – which led the country in organic soybean acres harvested in 2022 – currently has 69% of its soybeans planted. This puts Illinois ahead of pace, with the five-year average being only 48% of the average planting in the ground to date. Meanwhile, the second largest state for organic soybean acres in 2022, Michigan, has planted 95% of soybeans compared to a five-year average of 84%, and Iowa – which is third in organic soybean acreage and first by number of operations – has 69% planted compared to a five-year average of 48%.

U.S. organic soybean imports in February saw a surge back up to 33,000 metric tons (MT) after less than 2,000 MT came in just a month prior. This is the largest month of imports since August 2022. Despite the strong recovery from the prior month, February imports were still down 10% y/y. Turkey was the main source of organic whole soybeans in February, with over 31,000 MT. Cumulative imports through February for the current marketing year have reached 135,000 MT, which is 17% above the prior marketing year.

Organic soybean prices during the first quarter of 2023 have continued to come off the highs registered last year. During the biweekly period ending March 11, 2023, the price of organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to the U.S. Corn Belt averaged $22.50, down from over $25.00 a month prior and $37.00 the year before. Soybean markets have overall been quiet with most buyers already having ample enough stocks. New crop contracting has been especially quiet, with most parties willing to wait to see how the price evolves over the coming months. The few bids that have been made for new crop soybeans are running below current levels.

Significant uncertainty remains unresolved in the organic soybean market, which provides the possibility for volatility in the coming months. Continued droughts in the major producing regions of Argentina have already led to notable crop losses while ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea could affect supply coming out of the region. It will be crucial to see in the coming months how U.S. acreage changes, as the declining price could steer more acres back to organic corn. Right now, both sides of the market will continue waiting on the sidelines until some of the above open issues are resolved.

The organic soybean market has continued to be a roller coaster since 2020, and the long upward climb appears to be at an end. In September, U.S. organic soybean imports decreased significantly reaching only 8,400 MT following 100,000 MT over the previous two months. Though many of the September organic soybean imports still came from Argentina – approximately 4,400 MT in total – that is a decrease from the 30,500 MT reported during August. There were no organic soybean imports from Turkey following the 13,200 MT imported in August.

In total, organic soybean imports are off to a slower start for 2022/23 after reaching 305,000 MT in 2021/22. Total organic soybean meal maritime imports reached 26,700 MT over September, down 14% y/y and 8% from August. The most significant number of imports came from India with 22,000 MT while the rest came from Ethiopia, Togo and China. Total U.S. organic soybean meal imports are still down 32% y/y at 280,000 MT through September 2021/22.

As harvest continues, organic soybean prices have continued to soften. Over October, prices for organic feed-grade soybeans delivered to U.S. Corn Belt elevators averaged $32.08/bu., down from $35.60 in September. With the continued imports of soybeans and increased U.S. production, prices likely will not move higher this year, and it is possible prices will continue this downward trend.

Even though imports of U.S. organic soybeans slowed down over September, it is unlikely this downturn is enough to stop the bearish pressure soybeans are facing. With the total number of soybeans imported over the last year, along with increased U.S. production, the U.S. organic soybean supply is continuing to grow to a point which could leave large amounts of carryover into next year. As prices continue to come down, imports may slow down slightly. However, many imports likely will continue to come in. With the soybean supply continuing to grow, it is likely organic soybean prices drop below $30.00/bu. before the end of 2022.

Mercaris, the nation’s leading market data service and online trading platform for organic and non-GMO agricultural commodities, is an SSGA member and a monthly contributor to the SSGA E-newsletter.